Journal
ENERGY POLICY
Volume 39, Issue 6, Pages 3307-3315Publisher
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.03.021
Keywords
Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle; Market penetration forecasting; Generalized Bass diffusion model
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In order to cope with climate change, the development and deployment of Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles (HFCVs) is becoming more important. In this study, we developed a forecasting model for HFCVs based on the generalized Bass diffusion model and a simulation model using system dynamics. Through the developed model, we could forecast that the saturation of HFCVs in Korea can be moved up 12 years compared with the US. A sensitivity analysis on external variables such as price reduction rates of HFCVs and number of hydrogen refueling stations is also conducted. The results of this study can give insights on the effects of external variables on the market penetration of HFCVs, and the developed model can also be applied to other studies in analyzing the diffusion effects of HFCVs. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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