Journal
ENERGY POLICY
Volume 38, Issue 9, Pages 4783-4796Publisher
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2009.07.026
Keywords
Low-carbon society; Local environmental policy; Backcasting
Funding
- Ministry of the Environment [S-3-1, S-6-1]
- KAKENHI [2056391]
- Kyoto Collaborative Research Institute of The Consortium of Universities in Kyoto
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On May 2008, Kyoto city government set up a low-carbon target of a 50% GHG reduction by 2030 compared to the 1990 level. To contribute to these discussions, we developed a local (city-scale) low-carbon scenario creation method. An estimation model was developed to show a quantitative and consistent future snapshot. The model can explicitly treat the uncertainty of future socio-economic situations, which originate from the openness of local economy. The method was applied to Kyoto city, and countermeasures to achieve the low-carbon target were identified. Without countermeasures, emissions would increase 12% from 2000. Among the measures, the reduction potential of energy efficiency improvements to residential and commercial sectors was found to be relatively large (15% and 18% of total reductions, respectively). The reduction potential of the passenger transport sector, in which the city government's policy is especially important, was 17% of the total amount. A sensitivity analysis showed that a 10% increase in exports leads to an 8.5% increase in CO2 emissions, and a 20% increase in the share of the commuters from outside the city leads to a 3.5% decrease of CO2 emissions because of the smaller number of residents in the city. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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