Trend in efficiency and capacity of fossil power generation in the EU

The purpose of this study is to determine past and future energy efficiency of fossil power generation in EU-27. It is found that the average efficiency for gas-fired power generation increased sharply from 34% in 1990 to 50% in 2005 and is expected to increase to 54% by 2015 (based on lower heating value), For coal-fired power generation the efficiency increased from 34% in 1990 to 38% in 2005 and is expected to increase to 40% by 2015 (LHV). The improvements are largely determined by the introduction of new generating capacity. The amount of natural gas-based generating capacity has strongly increased in the last 15 years. The share of gas-fired power generation in total fossil power generation in the EU increased from 11% in 1990 to 34% in 2005 and is expected to increase to 46% by 2015. The average CO(2)-intensity for fossil-fired power generation in the EU decreased from 920 g CO(2)/kWh in 1990 to 720 g/kWh in 2005, mainly due to a shift from coal to natural gas. For the period 2005-2015 another decrease is expected from 720 to 630 g/kWh. Total greenhouse gas emissions from fossil power generation are however expected to increase by 10% in 2020. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.