Ex-post evaluation of European energy models

Various energy-modelling activities are pursued by public authorities, private companies and research institutes with the aim to provide energy forecasts and to assess the impact of energy and environmental policies. Nevertheless, no ex-post evaluations of the results of these modelling activities have been carried out at the European Community level. This paper investigates and compares the assumptions and the results from a European study carried out in the middle of the eighties with the combination of the so-called Modele de prospective de la demande energetique a long terme (MEDEE) and Energy flow Optimization (EFOM) models with the targeted year of 2000 as presented in the ENERGY 2000 study. Concretely, assumptions and forecasts are compared with real statistical data. In this way, an evaluation of quantitative tools and model results can be established. The aim of this paper is not to evaluate the quantitative tools themselves but their results and their policy relevance within a frame of 15 years. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.