Journal
ENERGY JOURNAL
Volume 35, Issue 4, Pages 101-133Publisher
INT ASSOC ENERGY ECONOMICS
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.35.4.5
Keywords
Meta-analysis; Granger causality; Energy; Economic growth
Categories
Funding
- Australian Research Council [DP120101088]
- German Research Foundation (DFG) [DFG-GK-1411]
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We carry out a meta-analysis of the very large literature on testing for Granger causality between energy use and economic output to determine if there is a genuine effect in this literature or whether the large number of apparently significant results is due to publication or misspecification bias. Our model extends the standard meta-regression model for detecting genuine effects in the presence of publication biases using the statistical power trace by controlling for the tendency to over-fit vector autoregression models in small samples. Granger causality tests in these over-fitted models have inflated type I errors. We cannot find a genuine causal effect in the literature as a whole. However, there is a robust genuine effect from output to energy use when energy prices are controlled for.
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