Journal
ENERGY CONVERSION AND MANAGEMENT
Volume 84, Issue -, Pages 649-663Publisher
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.enconman.2014.04.051
Keywords
Wind power; Probabilistic forecasting; Model selection; Online learning
Categories
Funding
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [51177125, 61221063, 61174146, 61304212, U1301254]
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Based on the online model selection and the warped Gaussian process (WGP), this paper presents an ensemble model for the probabilistic wind power forecasting. This model provides the non-Gaussian predictive distributions, which quantify the non-Gaussian uncertainties associated with wind power. In order to follow the time-varying characteristics of wind generation, multiple time dependent base forecasting models and an online model selection strategy are established, thus adaptively selecting the most probable base model for each prediction. WGP is employed as the base model, which handles the non-Gaussian uncertainties in wind power series. Furthermore, a regime switch strategy is designed to modify the input feature set dynamically, thereby enhancing the adaptiveness of the model. In an online learning framework, the base models should also be time adaptive. To achieve this, a recursive algorithm is introduced, thus permitting the online updating of WGP base models. The proposed model has been tested on the actual data collected from both single and aggregated wind farms. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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