Household pathway selection of energy consumption during urbanization process in China

China's growing energy demand is driven by urbanization. Facing the problem of energy scarcity, residential energy consumption is a crucial area of energy conservation and emissions reduction. Household energy consumption patterns, which are characterized by effects of path lock-in, have long-term impacts on China's energy demand. Based on the survey data, this paper explores factors that influence household energy consumption and analyzes the structure of residential energy consumption in China. Based on the results of analysis of variance (ANOVA), this paper applies the Tobit and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) models to investigate impacts of variables of the tiered pricing for household electricity (TPHE), solar energy usage, automobile ownership, rural or urban areas, household income and city scale on the residential energy expenditure. In addition, household energy consumption is estimated under different scenarios including improving the utilization of solar energy, rise in energy prices and the increase in automobile ownership. Residential energy consumption in 2030 is evaluated by simulating different models for urban development. Policy recommendations are suggested for China's urban development strategy, new energy development and household pathway selection of energy consumption. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.