Journal
ENERGY CONVERSION AND MANAGEMENT
Volume 49, Issue 6, Pages 1331-1344Publisher
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.enconman.2008.01.008
Keywords
electricity load forecasting; machine learning; Bayesian clustering; support vector regression; non-stationarity
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In deregulated power markets, forecasting electricity loads is one of the most essential tasks for system planning, operation and decision making. Based on an integration of two machine learning techniques: Bayesian clustering by dynamics (BCD) and support vector regression (SVR), this paper proposes a novel forecasting model for day ahead electricity load forecasting. The proposed model adopts an integrated architecture to handle the non-stationarity of time series. Firstly, a BCD classifier is applied to cluster the input data set into several subsets by the dynamics of the time series in an unsupervised manner. Then, groups of SVRs are used to fit the training data of each subset in a supervised way. The effectiveness of the proposed model is demonstrated with actual data taken from the New York ISO and the Western Farmers Electric Cooperative in Oklahoma. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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