Journal
ENERGY
Volume 164, Issue -, Pages 496-511Publisher
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2018.08.164
Keywords
Brazilian electricity sector; Energy system analysis; EnergyPLAN; Renewable energy
Categories
Funding
- ALGORITMI research Centre at University of Minho
- FCT - Fundacao para a Ciencia e Tecnologia [UID/CEC/00319/2013]
- [COMPETE: POCI-01-0145-FEDER-007043]
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The Brazilian electricity system is an important example of a large country relying on a high renewable energy matrix with a major focus on hydropower, which has historically allowed for low carbon electricity production. However, the increase in the demand and climate change impacts on the availability of these renewable resources represent important challenges for long-term power planning. The contribution of this paper is twofold: Firstly, a first attempt to use the EnergyPLAN model for the analysis of the Brazilian electricity sector and in particular to study future scenarios is presented. Secondly, the possibility of achieving a 100% RES system is also addressed. The 100% RES scenario is found to be theoretically possible but a substantial increase in the overall installed capacity would be required, to support the grid mainly during the spring and summer season. The results underline the importance of seasonal complementarity of hydro and wind power and reveal how an increase in RES would add exportation potential, reducing also the Brazilian external energy dependency. The study identifies risk factors for these high RES scenarios and outlines several avenues for future research to address cost, environmental and technical uncertainties of the system. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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