Development and validation of artificial neural network models of the energy demand in the industrial sector of the United States

In the United States, the industrial sector is the driving engine of economic development, and energy consumption in this sector may be considered as the fuel for this engine. In order to keep this sector sustainable (diverse and productive over the time), energy planning should be carried out comprehensively and precisely. This paper describes the development of two types of numerical energy models which are able to predict the United States' future industrial energy-demand. One model uses an ANN (artificial neural network) technique, and the other model uses a MLR (multiple linear regression) technique. Various independent variables (GDP, price of energy carriers) are tested. The future industrial energy demand can then be forecasted based on a defined scenario. The ANN model anticipates a 16% increase in energy demand from 2012 by 2030. In this forecast, the model assumes that the effective independent parameters remain constant during this period and only GDP grows with a second-order polynomial trend. The forecast result, which shows consistency with published predictions, may be considered as an indication of the need for development of new and low-cost energy sources. This study suggests that the ANN technique is a reliable and powerful technique which can effectively perform input/output mapping. In order to validate the performance of the models, the results of the ANN model is compared to the projections from the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.