Thresholds and Stability of Alternative Regimes in Shallow Prairie-Parkland Lakes of Central North America

Numerous studies have demonstrated alternative regimes in shallow lake ecosystems around the world, with one state dominated by submerged macrophytes and the other by phytoplankton. However, the stability of each regime, and thresholds at which lakes shift to the alternative regime, are poorly known. We used a cross-sectional analysis of 72 shallow lakes located in prairie and parkland areas of Minnesota, USA, during 2005 and 2006 to assess the occurrence of alternative regimes and shifts between them. Cluster analysis revealed two distinct groups of lakes characterized not only by different macrophyte abundance and chlorophyll a levels but also by different total phosphorus-chlorophyll a relationships. Thirty-nine lakes were macrophyte- and 23 lakes phytoplankton-dominated in both years, whereas 10 sites shifted sharply between those regimes. We failed to detect a universal shifting threshold in terms of chlorophyll a or total phosphorus. However, 95% of the lakes with chlorophyll a concentrations less than 22 mu g l(-1) were in a clear-water regime, whereas 95% of the lakes with chlorophyll a higher than 31 mu g l(-1) were in a turbid regime. Total phosphorus less than 62 mu g l(-1) was an accurate predictor of lakes in a stable clear-water regime, whereas a large change in biomass of planktivores and benthivores between years was the only variable weakly related to regime shifts. Our results support the theoretical prediction that regime thresholds vary among lakes. We recommend that lake managers focus on improving resilience of clear regimes in shallow lakes by reducing nutrient loading, rather than attempting to identify and manage complex triggers of regime shifts.