Journal
ECOLOGY LETTERS
Volume 17, Issue 3, Pages 380-387Publisher
WILEY-BLACKWELL
DOI: 10.1111/ele.12241
Keywords
Bet hedging; delayed germination; density dependence; desert annuals; evolutionarily stable strategies; population dynamic models; seed bank
Categories
Funding
- Division Of Environmental Biology
- Direct For Biological Sciences [1256792] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
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In bet hedging, organisms sacrifice short-term success to reduce the long-term variance in success. Delayed germination is the classic example of bet hedging, in which a fraction of seeds remain dormant as a hedge against the risk of complete reproductive failure. Here, we investigate the adaptive nature of delayed germination as a bet hedging strategy using long-term demographic data on Sonoran Desert winter annual plants. Using stochastic population models, we estimate fitness as a function of delayed germination and identify evolutionarily stable strategies for 12 abundant species in the community. Results indicate that delayed germination meets the criteria as a bet hedging strategy for all species. Density-dependent models, but not density-independent ones, predicted optimal germination strategies that correspond remarkably well with observed patterns. By incorporating naturally occurring variation in seed and seedling dynamics, our results present a rigorous test of bet hedging theory within the relevant environmental context.
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