Journal
ECOLOGY LETTERS
Volume 11, Issue 5, Pages 450-460Publisher
WILEY
DOI: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2008.01160.x
Keywords
alternative stable states; catastrophic regime shifts; ecological indicators; lake eutrophication; resilience; skewness; stability; tipping points; vegetation collapse; warning signals
Categories
Funding
- Direct For Mathematical & Physical Scien
- Division Of Materials Research [844115] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
Ask authors/readers for more resources
Empirical evidence for large-scale abrupt changes in ecosystems such as lakes and vegetation of semi-arid regions is growing. Such changes, called regime shifts, can lead to degradation of ecological services. We study simple ecological models that show a catastrophic transition as a control parameter is varied and propose a novel early warning signal that exploits two ubiquitous features of ecological systems: nonlinearity and large external fluctuations. Either reduced resilience or increased external fluctuations can tip ecosystems to an alternative stable state. It is shown that changes in asymmetry in the distribution of time series data, quantified by changing skewness, is a model-independent and reliable early warning signal for both routes to regime shifts. Furthermore, using model simulations that mimic field measurements and a simple analysis of real data from abrupt climate change in the Sahara, we study the feasibility of skewness calculations using data available from routine monitoring.
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available