Journal
ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS
Volume 19, Issue 1, Pages 198-205Publisher
WILEY
DOI: 10.1890/07-1641.1
Keywords
Bayesian decision analysis; harvest models; maximum likelihood; modeling a semelparous species; natural-resource management; optimal model complexity; Ricker model equations
Categories
Funding
- NSF [9905197]
- Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation
- Divn Of Social and Economic Sciences
- Direct For Social, Behav & Economic Scie [9905197] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
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Previous studies have shown that, for managing harvest of natural resources, overly complex models perform poorly. Decision-analytic approaches treat uncertainly differently from the maximum-likelihood approaches these studies employed. By simulation using a simple. sheries model, I show that decision-analytic approaches to managing harvest also can suffer from using overly complex models. Managers using simpler models can outperform managers using more complex models, even if the more complex models are correct and even if their use allows the incorporation of additional relevant information. Decision-analytic approaches outperformed maximum-likelihood approaches in my simulations, even when Bayesian priors were uninformative.
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