Journal
ECOHEALTH
Volume 15, Issue 3, Pages 485-496Publisher
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s10393-018-1363-0
Keywords
Heat wave; Heat stress; Climate modeling; Health impact assessment; Downscaling; Scenario; Climate change
Funding
- U.S. National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS) [1R21ES020232-01]
- NSF [DGE-0549407]
- NASA Air Quality Applied Sciences Team (AQAST)
- National Science Foundation
- U.S. Department of Energy
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Research and Development
- NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH SCIENCES [R21ES020232] Funding Source: NIH RePORTER
Ask authors/readers for more resources
Climate change will increase extreme heat-related health risks. To quantify the health impacts of mid-century climate change, we assess heat-related excess mortality across the eastern USA. Health risks are estimated using the US Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP). Mid-century temperature estimates, downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, are compared to 2007 temperatures at 36km and 12km resolutions. Models indicate the average apparent and actual summer temperatures rise by 4.5 degrees and 3.3 degrees C, respectively. Warmer average apparent temperatures could cause 11,562 additional annual deaths (95% confidence interval, CI: 2641-20,095) due to cardiovascular stress in the population aged 65years and above, while higher minimum temperatures could cause 8767 (95% CI: 5030-12,475) additional deaths each year. Modeled future climate data available at both coarse (36km) and fine (12km) resolutions predict significant human health impacts from warmer climates. The findings suggest that currently available information on future climates is sufficient to guide regional planning for the protection of public health. Higher resolution climate and demographic data are still needed to inform more targeted interventions.
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available