Journal
DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS
Volume 21, Issue 1, Pages 13-22Publisher
WILEY
DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12263
Keywords
Climate warming; extreme value statistics; range edge estimation; sampling methodology
Categories
Funding
- Australian National Network in Marine Science
- James Cook University
- University of Tasmania
- University of Western Australia
- Australian Government Fisheries Research and Development Corporation
- Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency grant
- Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions
- ARC Future Fellowships
- ARC Linkage Grant
- NERC Independent Research Fellowship
- Marine Biodiversity Hub
- Australian Government's National Environmental Research Program
- Natural Environment Research Council [NE/K008439/1] Funding Source: researchfish
- NERC [NE/K008439/1] Funding Source: UKRI
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AimThe redistribution of species with climate change is well documented. Even so, the relative contribution of species detectability to the variation in measured range shift rates among species is poorly understood. How can true range shifts be discerned from sampling artefacts? LocationAustralia. MethodsWe simulate range shifts for species which differ in their abundance for comparison to patterns derived from empirical range shift data from two regional-scale (100skm) empirical studies. We demonstrate the use of spatial occupancy data in a distance-to-edge (DTE) model to assess changes in geographical range edges of fish species within a temperate reef fish community. ResultsSimulations identified how sampling design can produce relatively larger error in range shift estimates in less abundant species, patterns that correspond with those observed in real data. Application of the DTE model allowed us to estimate the location of the true range edge with high accuracy in common species. In addition, upper confidence bounds for range edge estimates identified species with range edges that have likely shifted in location. ConclusionsSimulation and modelling approaches used to quantify the level of confidence that can be placed in observed range shifts are particularly valuable for studies of marine species, where observations are typically few and patchy. Given the observed variability in range shift estimates, the inclusion of confidence bounds on estimates of geographical range edges will advance our capacity to disentangle true distributional change from artefacts of sampling design.
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