Satellite sleuthing: does remotely sensed land-cover change signal ecological degradation in a protected area?

We evaluate whether remotely sensed land-cover change within a newly protected area signalled human-driven ecological degradation. Vegetation density changed in a quarter of pixels during the first 13 years (1986-1999) following the sanctuary's formal enclosure, with many patches showing a decrease in density. We use on-the-ground data collected in 2006 in 132 random plots to explore whether these changes in vegetation density reliably signalled latent shifts in local diversity of woody plants and whether they could be attributed to illicit activities including fuel wood collection and livestock grazing. Kumbhalgarh Wildlife Sanctuary, Rajasthan, India. Species richness, species sharing, species assemblages, and incidence of invasive and useful species were statistically similar among plots in which vegetation density had decreased, increased or remained similar. Likewise, intensity of disturbance associated with human activities was similar across these plot types. Our data provide no clear evidence that local changes in vegetation density signalled latent shifts in local diversity of woody plants. They also fail to reveal any clear association between local changes in vegetation density and human-related activities. Finding no evidence that land-cover change led to biotic erosion, we reflect on the utility of resource-use bans in protected areas, particularly those embedded within historically coupled human-nature systems.