Journal
DEEP-SEA RESEARCH PART II-TOPICAL STUDIES IN OCEANOGRAPHY
Volume 152, Issue -, Pages 22-34Publisher
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.dsr2.2017.11.017
Keywords
Climate models; Chukchi Sea sea-ice projections; Sea-ice break-up and freeze-up dates; Annual sea-ice duration
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Funding
- U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Environmental Studies Program [M11PG00034]
- U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR), Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL)
- Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO) under NOAA [NA15OAR4320063, 2016-01-34]
- NOAA/OAR under the National Earth System Prediction Capability (National ESPC)
- Office of Naval Research [N00014-13-1-0793]
- Arctic Program through the NOAA Climate Program Office
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With the sea-ice cover in the Arctic fast declining, changes to the timing of sea-ice break-up and freeze-up is an urgent economic, social, and scientific concern. Based on daily sea-ice concentration data we assess three variables: the dates of sea-ice break-up and freeze-up, and the annual sea-ice duration in the Pacific Arctic. The simulation results from the coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are the source for this study. Compared with observations, CMIP5 models simulate all three variables well. The length of sea-ice duration is shrinking, with the strongest trend occurring for the period 1990-2014; this downward trend is projected to continue at least through mid-century by the CMIP5 models. Comparisons made at eight Chukchi Sea mooring sites and eight Distributed Biological Observatory (DBO) regions show consistent results. The 30-year averaged trend for annual sea-ice duration in the southern Chukchi Sea is projected to be -0.68 ( - 0.74) days/year to -1.20 ( - 1.17) days/year for 2015-2044 under RCP8.5 (RCP4.5) emissions scenarios. This is equivalent to a reduction of 20-36 days in the annual sea-ice duration. A similar negative trend is also found at all eight DBO regions. The reduction in annual sea-ice duration will include both earlier break-up dates and later freeze-up dates. However, models project that a later freeze-up contributes more than earlier break-up to the overall shortening of annual sea-ice duration. Around the Bering Strait area, future changes are the smallest, with less than 20 days change in duration during the next 30 years. In contrast, up to a 60-day reduction of the sea-ice duration in the East Siberian, Chukchi and Beaufort Seas is projected near the middle of the 21st century, when averaged over the period of 2030-2044.
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