Modelling the resource implications and budget impact of new reimbursement guidelines for the management of cow milk allergy in Finland

Objective: To assess the impact of the decision by Kela (The Social Insurance Institution) to adopt guidelines for the management of food allergies in children, developed by the Finnish Medical Society Duodecim, as the basis for reimbursing clinical nutrition preparations for the treatment of cow milk allergy (CMA) in Finland. Methods: A decision model was constructed using published clinical outcomes and clinician-derived resource utilisation estimates. The model was used to estimate the net resource implications and associated costs of Kela's new policy for the annual cohort of 1443 new CMA sufferers over the first 6 months following referral to a specialist. The analysis was conducted from the perspective of Kela, patients and Finnish society. Results: Kela's new policy for reimbursing clinical nutrition preparations for the treatment of CMA is expected to increase healthcare resource use, including a 10% increase in the number of specialist visits over the first 6 months following referral. Consequently, Kela's 6-monthly expenditure on 1443 new CMA sufferers following referral is expected to increase by 12% from (sic)889 389 to (sic)992 761. Additionally, parents' costs are expected to increase by 10% and fathers' absenteeism from work to increase by 11% within the first 6 months following referral. Conclusion: It is important to validate guidelines in clinical practice before their implementation. Within the limitations of our model, Kela's new criteria for reimbursing clinical nutrition preparations for the treatment of CMA is expected to increase healthcare resource use in paediatric departments in public hospitals in Finland and increase costs to Kela, patients and Finnish society.