How closely do measures of mitochondrial DNA control region diversity reflect recent trajectories of population decline in birds?

Monitoring levels of genetic diversity in wildlife species is important for understanding population status and trajectory. Knowledge of the distribution and level of genetic diversity in a population is essential to inform conservation management, and help alleviate detrimental genetic impacts associated with recent population bottlenecking. Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) markers such as the control region have become a common means of surveying for within-population genetic diversity and detecting signatures of recent population decline. Nevertheless, little attention has been given to examining the mtDNA control region's sensitivity and performance at detecting instances of population decline. We review genetic studies of bird populations published since 1993 that have used the mtDNA control region and reported haplotype diversity, number of haplotypes and nucleotide diversity as measures of within-population variability. We examined the extent to which these measures reflect differences in known demographic parameters such as current population size, severity of any recent bottleneck and IUCN Red List status. Overall, significant relationships were observed between two measures of genetic diversity (haplotype diversity and the number of haplotypes), and population size across a number of comparisons. Both measures gave a more accurate reflection of recent population history in comparison to nucleotide diversity, for which no significant associations were found. Importantly, levels of diversity only correlated with demographic declines where population sizes were known to have fallen below 500 individuals. This finding suggests that measures of mtDNA control region diversity should be used with a degree of caution when inferring demographic history, particularly bottleneck events at population sizes above N = 500.