Journal
COMPUTERS AND GEOTECHNICS
Volume 53, Issue -, Pages 95-105Publisher
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.compgeo.2013.05.004
Keywords
Probabilistic slope stability analysis; Monte Carlo simulation; Statistical analysis; Failure samples
Categories
Funding
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [51274126, 51208446, 51008167]
- S&T Plan Project from Shandong Provincial Education Department [J10LE07]
- Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China [20103721120001]
- open foundation of State Key Laboratory of Costal and Offshore Engineering, Dalian University of Technology [LP12014]
- Domestic Visitor Foundation from the Ministry of Education of China
Ask authors/readers for more resources
This paper develops a risk de-aggregation and system reliability approach to evaluate the slope failure probability, p(f), using representative slip surfaces together with MCS. An efficient procedure is developed to strategically select the candidate representative slip surfaces, and a risk de-aggregation approach is proposed to quantify contribution of each candidate representative slip surface to the p(f), identify the representative slip surfaces, and determine how many representative slip surfaces are needed for estimating the pf with reasonable accuracy. Risk de-aggregation is performed by collecting the failure samples generated in MCS and analyzing them statistically. The proposed methodology is illustrated through a cohesive soil slope example and validated against results from previous studies. When compared with the previous studies, the proposed approach substantially improves the computational efficiency in probabilistic slope stability analysis. The proposed approach is used to explore the effect of spatial variability on the pf. It is found that, when spatial variability is ignored or perfect correlation assumed, the pf of the whole slope system can be solely attributed to a single representative slip surface. In this case, it is theoretically appropriate to use only one slip surface in the reliability analysis. As the spatial variability becomes growingly significant, the number of representative slip surfaces increases, and all representative slip surfaces (i.e., failure modes) contribute more equally to the overall system risk. The variation of failure modes has substantial effect on the pf, and all representative surfaces have to be incorporated properly in the reliability analysis. The risk de-aggregation and system reliability approach developed in this paper provides a practical and efficient means to incorporate such a variation of failure modes in probabilistic slope stability analysis. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available