Journal
COMPUTERS & STRUCTURES
Volume 126, Issue -, Pages 199-213Publisher
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.compstruc.2013.02.003
Keywords
Hierarchical uncertainty; Possibility distributions; Fuzzy interval analysis; Two-level Monte Carlo method; Dependences; Flood protection dike
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We consider a model for the risk-based design of a flood protection dike, and use probability distributions to represent aleatory uncertainty and possibility distributions to describe the epistemic uncertainty associated to the poorly known parameters of such probability distributions. A hybrid method is introduced to hierarchically propagate the two types of uncertainty, and the results are compared with those of a Monte Carlo-based Dempster-Shafer approach employing independent random sets and a purely probabilistic, two-level Monte Carlo approach: the risk estimates produced are similar to those of the Dempster-Shafer method and more conservative than those of the two-level Monte Carlo approach. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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