Journal
COMMUNICATIONS IN NONLINEAR SCIENCE AND NUMERICAL SIMULATION
Volume 18, Issue 7, Pages 1775-1785Publisher
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.cnsns.2012.11.017
Keywords
Grey system theory; GM (1,1) model; Fractional order accumulation; CO2 emissions forecasting; Memory process
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Funding
- Jiangsu Innovation Program for Graduate Education [CXLX12_0176]
- Funding for Outstanding Doctoral Dissertation in NUAA [BCXJ12-13]
- Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [71171113, 71111130211]
- Social Science Foundation of Hebei Province [HB11GL031]
- Hebei Provincial Department of housing and urban-rural development of science and technology research Foundation [2012-158]
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The perturbation theory of least squares method is applied to explain why the traditional accumulated generating operator violates the principle of new information priority of Grey system theory. A new Grey system model with the fractional order accumulation is put forward and the priority of new information can be better reflected when the accumulation order number becomes smaller in the in-sample model. But Grey system model cannot deal with the systems with memory when the accumulation order number is 0 in the in-sample model. The results of practical numerical examples demonstrate that the new Grey model provides very remarkable predication performance compared with the traditional Grey model for small sample. (C) 2012 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.
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