Journal
COASTAL ENGINEERING
Volume 57, Issue 11-12, Pages 973-984Publisher
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2010.05.009
Keywords
Significant wave height; Storm surges; Climate change; Extreme value distribution
Categories
Funding
- Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
- Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council [EP/F020511/1]
- DEFRA/EA Joint Research Programme on Flood and Coastal Defence, UKWIR, OPW (Ireland)
- Rivers Agency (Northern Ireland)
- DECC [(DECC) GA01101]
- MoD [(MoD) CBC/2B/0417_Annex C5]
- Defra
- EPSRC [EP/F020511/1] Funding Source: UKRI
- NERC [noc010005, soc010007, NE/E015123/1] Funding Source: UKRI
- Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council [EP/F020511/1] Funding Source: researchfish
- Natural Environment Research Council [NE/E015123/1, noc010005, soc010007] Funding Source: researchfish
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In coastal areas, offshore wave propagation towards the shore is influenced by water depth variations, due to sea bed bathymetry, tides and surges. Considering implications of climate change both on atmospheric forcing and sea level rise, a simple methodology involving numerical modelling is implemented to compute inshore waves from 1960 to 2099. Simulations take into account five scenarios of linear sea level rise and one climatic scenario for storm surges and offshore waves. The methodology is applied to the East Anglia coast (UK). Extreme event analysis is performed to estimate climate change implication on inshore waves and the occurrence of extreme events. It is shown, for this coastal region, that wave statistics are sensitive to the trend in sea level rise, and that the climate change scenario leads to a significant increase of extreme wave heights in the northern part of the domain. For nearshore points, the increase of the mean sea level alters not only extreme wave heights but also the frequency of occurrence of extreme wave conditions. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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