Journal
COASTAL ENGINEERING
Volume 56, Issue 8, Pages 886-894Publisher
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2009.04.006
Keywords
Uncertainty; Morphodynamics; Model; Tidal inlet; Obidos lagoon
Categories
Funding
- Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia
- Programa Operacional Ciencia, Tecnologia, Inovacao
- FEDER
- European Commission [IMMATIE-041171]
Ask authors/readers for more resources
The uncertainty associated with simulations of process-based coastal area morphodynamic models is assessed through numerical experimentation. Appropriate metrics; of uncertainty are defined based on the standard deviation of the model results at each location and each time step. Uncertainty is examined using a set of realistic one year morphodynamic simulations of the evolution of a highly dynamic tidal inlet. Results indicate that uncertainty increases linearly with time, and suggest that its rate grows with increasing sediment fluxes. Hence, the limits of predictability of morphodynamic model applications are higher for slowly varying systems. Attempts to reduce uncertainty by aggregating model results at larger spatial scales met with limited success. Ensemble simulations are suggested as a possible avenue to investigate the long-term evolution of tidal inlets using process-based models. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available