Journal
CLIMATIC CHANGE
Volume 119, Issue 2, Pages 359-374Publisher
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0730-7
Keywords
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Funding
- National Science Foundation Vulnerability of Permafrost Carbon Research Coordination Network [955713]
- Direct For Biological Sciences
- Division Of Environmental Biology [0955341] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
- Directorate For Geosciences
- Office of Polar Programs (OPP) [0856864, 0806394, 1107892, 0732735, 806271] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
- Division Of Environmental Biology
- Direct For Biological Sciences [0747195, 1026415, 830997, 0955713] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
- Office of Polar Programs (OPP)
- Directorate For Geosciences [0806465, 0806399] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
- Office Of The Director
- Office of Integrative Activities [1101317] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
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Approximately 1700 Pg of soil carbon (C) are stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost zone, more than twice as much C than in the atmosphere. The overall amount, rate, and form of C released to the atmosphere in a warmer world will influence the strength of the permafrost C feedback to climate change. We used a survey to quantify variability in the perception of the vulnerability of permafrost C to climate change. Experts were asked to provide quantitative estimates of permafrost change in response to four scenarios of warming. For the highest warming scenario (RCP 8.5), experts hypothesized that C release from permafrost zone soils could be 19-45 Pg C by 2040, 162-288 Pg C by 2100, and 381-616 Pg C by 2300 in CO2 equivalent using 100-year CH4 global warming potential (GWP). These values become 50 % larger using 20-year CH4 GWP, with a third to a half of expected climate forcing coming from CH4 even though CH4 was only 2.3 % of the expected C release. Experts projected that two-thirds of this release could be avoided under the lowest warming scenario (RCP 2.6). These results highlight the potential risk from permafrost thaw and serve to frame a hypothesis about the magnitude of this feedback to climate change. However, the level of emissions proposed here are unlikely to overshadow the impact of fossil fuel burning, which will continue to be the main source of C emissions and climate forcing.
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