Journal
CLIMATIC CHANGE
Volume 99, Issue 3-4, Pages 499-514Publisher
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-009-9672-5
Keywords
-
Ask authors/readers for more resources
Future climate trends for the Southwestern US, based on the climate models included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report, project a more arid climate in the region during the 21st century. However, future climate variability associated with El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-an important driver for winter climate variability in the region-have not been addressed. In this work we evaluate future winter ENSO projections derived from two selected IPCC models, and their effect on Southwestern US climate. We first evaluate the ability of the IPCC coupled models to represent the climate of the Southwest, selecting the two models that best capture seasonal precipitation and temperature over the region and realistically represent ENSO variability (Max Planck Institute's ECHAM5 and the UK Met Office HadCM3). Our work shows that the projected future aridity of the region will be dramatically amplified during La Nia conditions, as anomalies over a drier mean state, and will be characterized by higher temperatures (similar to 0.5A degrees C) and lower precipitation (similar to 3 mm/mnt) than the projected trends. These results have important implications for water managers in the Southwest who must prepare for more intense winter aridity associated with future ENSO conditions.
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available