Journal
CLIMATE DYNAMICS
Volume 41, Issue 11-12, Pages 2957-2972Publisher
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1611-x
Keywords
Paleoclimate; Temperature; Asia; Tree-rings; Volcanic
Categories
Funding
- Research Institute for Humanity and Nature in Japan
- US National Science Foundation [ATM 04-02474, GEO 09-08971]
- Directorate For Geosciences [0908971] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
- Division Of Earth Sciences
- Directorate For Geosciences [1023724] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
- Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research [11J10262, 23651012, 20221002] Funding Source: KAKEN
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We develop a summer temperature reconstruction for temperate East Asia based on a network of annual tree-ring chronologies covering the period 800-1989 C.E. The East Asia reconstruction is the regional average of 585 individual grid point summer temperature reconstructions produced using an ensemble version of point-by-point regression. Statistical calibration and validation tests indicate that the regional average possesses sufficient overall skill to allow it to be used to study the causes of temperature variability and change over the region. The reconstruction suggests a moderately warm early medieval epoch (ca. 850-1050 C.E.), followed by generally cooler 'Little Ice Age' conditions (ca. 1350-1880 C.E.) and 20th century warming up to the present time. Since 1990, average temperature has exceeded past warm epochs of comparable duration, but it is not statistically unprecedented. Superposed epoch analysis reveals a volcanic forcing signal in the East Asia summer temperature reconstruction, resulting in pulses of cooler summer conditions that may persist for several years. Substantial uncertainties remain, however, particularly at lower frequencies, thus requiring caution and scientific prudence in the interpretation of this record.
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