Journal
CLIMATE DYNAMICS
Volume 37, Issue 7-8, Pages 1469-1482Publisher
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0921-0
Keywords
Uncertainty; Probabilistic prediction; Thermohaline circulation; Intermediate complexity climate model
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Funding
- UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)
- NERC
- UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (via the UK Met Office)
- NERC [NE/C522268/1, ESM010002] Funding Source: UKRI
- Natural Environment Research Council [NE/C522268/1, ESM010002, ceh010023] Funding Source: researchfish
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Credible climate predictions require a rational quantification of uncertainty, but full Bayesian calibration requires detailed estimates of prior probability distributions and covariances, which are difficult to obtain in practice. We describe a simplified procedure, termed precalibration, which provides an approximate quantification of uncertainty in climate prediction, and requires only that uncontroversially implausible values of certain inputs and outputs are identified. The method is applied to intermediate-complexity model simulations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and confirms the existence of a cliff-edge catastrophe in freshwater-forcing input space. When uncertainty in 14 further parameters is taken into account, an implausible, AMOC-off, region remains as a robust feature of the model dynamics, but its location is found to depend strongly on values of the other parameters.
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