Journal
CLIMATE DYNAMICS
Volume 33, Issue 6, Pages 737-749Publisher
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-008-0505-4
Keywords
Climate projections; Mitigation scenarios; Attribution of climate change; Earth system models of intermediate complexity; Carbon cycle
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Funding
- Sixth Framework Programme of the European Commission
- Swiss National Science Foundation
- Swiss Federal Office for the Environment
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Climate is simulated for reference and mitigation emissions scenarios from Integrated Assessment Models using the Bern2.5CC carbon cycle-climate model. Mitigation options encompass all major radiative forcing agents. Temperature change is attributed to forcings using an impulse-response substitute of Bern2.5CC. The contribution of CO2 to global warming increases over the century in all scenarios. Non-CO2 mitigation measures add to the abatement of global warming. The share of mitigation carried by CO2, however, increases when radiative forcing targets are lowered, and increases after 2000 in all mitigation scenarios. Thus, non-CO2 mitigation is limited and net CO2 emissions must eventually subside. Mitigation rapidly reduces the sulfate aerosol loading and associated cooling, partly masking Greenhouse Gas mitigation over the coming decades. A profound effect of mitigation on CO2 concentration, radiative forcing, temperatures and the rate of climate change emerges in the second half of the century.
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