Twenty-Two-Year Trends in Incidence of Myocardial Infarction, Coronary Heart Disease Mortality, and Case Fatality in 4 US Communities, 1987-2008

Background-Knowledge of trends in the incidence of and survival after myocardial infarction (MI) in a community setting is important to understanding trends in coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates. Methods and Results-We estimated race-and gender-specific trends in the incidence of hospitalized MI, case fatality, and CHD mortality from community-wide surveillance and validation of hospital discharges and of in-and out-of-hospital deaths among 35- to 74-year-old residents of 4 communities in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study. Biomarker adjustment accounted for change from reliance on cardiac enzymes to widespread use of troponin measurements over time. During 1987-2008, a total of 30 985 fatal or nonfatal hospitalized acute MI events occurred. Rates of CHD death among persons without a history of MI fell an average 4.7%/y among men and 4.3%/y among women. Rates of both in-and out-of-hospital CHD death declined significantly throughout the period. Age-and biomarker-adjusted average annual rate of incident MI decreased 4.3% among white men, 3.8% among white women, 3.4% among black women, and 1.5% among black men. Declines in CHD mortality and MI incidence were greater in the second decade (1997-2008). Failure to account for biomarker shift would have masked declines in incidence, particularly among blacks. Age-adjusted 28-day case fatality after hospitalized MI declined 3.5%/y among white men, 3.6%/y among black men, 3.0%/y among white women, and 2.6%/y among black women. Conclusions-Although these findings from 4 communities may not be directly generalizable to blacks and whites in the entire United States, we observed significant declines in MI incidence, primarily as a result of downward trends in rates between 1997 and 2008. (Circulation. 2012; 125: 1848-1857.)