Journal
CIRCULATION
Volume 121, Issue 1, Pages 43-51Publisher
LIPPINCOTT WILLIAMS & WILKINS
DOI: 10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.109.878017
Keywords
acute coronary syndrome; bleeding; modeling; myocardial infarction; risk score
Funding
- The Medicines Company, Parsippany, NJ
- Nycomed, Roskilde, Denmark
- Boston Scientific
- Cordis
- Regado
- Therox
- sanofi-aventis
- Lilly
- Diachi Sankyo
- Medtronic
- Abbott
- Guebert
- Abiomed
- Bristol Myers Squibb
- CV Therapeutics
- Daiichi Sankyo
- Datascope
- Eli Lilly Company
- Schering-Plough
- Berlex
- Alexion
- NIH
- Pfizer
- Roche
- Johnson Johnson
- Shering Plough
- Merck Sharpe Dohme
- AstraZeneca
- GlaxoSmithKline
- Daichi Sankyo
- Neuren Pharmaceuticals
- Fournier Laboratories
- Procter Gamble
- Abbott Vascular
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Background-Both ischemic and hemorrhagic complications increase mortality rate in acute coronary syndromes. Their frequency and relative importance vary according to individual patient risk profiles. We sought to develop prognostic models for the risk of myocardial infarction (MI) and major bleeding to assess their impact on risk of death and to examine the manner in which alternative antithrombotic regimens affect these risks in individual patients. Methods and Results-The Acute Catheterization and Urgent Intervention Triage Strategy (ACUITY) trial randomized 13 819 patients with acute coronary syndrome to heparin plus a glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitor, bivalirudin plus a glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitor, or bivalirudin alone. By logistic regression, there were 5 independent predictors of MI within 30 days (n=705; 5.1%) and 8 independent predictors of major bleeding (n=645; 4.7%), only 2 of which were common to both event types. In a covariate-adjusted, time-updated Cox regression model, both MI and major bleeding significantly affected subsequent mortality rate (hazard ratios, 2.7 and 2.9, respectively; both P<0.001). Treatment with bivalirudin versus heparin plus a glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitor was associated with a nonsignificant 8% increase in MI and a highly significant 50% decrease in major bleeding. Given the individual patient risk profiles and the fact that bivalirudin prevented approximate to 6 major bleeds for each MI that might occur from its use, the estimated reduction in bleeding was greater than the estimated increase in MI by bivalirudin alone rather than heparin plus a glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitor for nearly all patients. Conclusions-Consideration of the individual patient risk profile for MI and major bleeding and the relative treatment effects of alternative pharmacotherapies permits personalized decision making to optimize therapy of patients with acute coronary syndrome.
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