Reconstructing mean maximum temperature of growing season from the maximum density of the Schrenk Spruce in Yili, Xinjiang, China

To study the historical temperature variation in Yili of Xinjiang, the tree-ring chronologies of maximum density (MXD) and tree-ring width (TRW) were established with the Schrenk Spruce (Picea schrenkiana Fisch. et Mey) collected from six sites to analyze the characteristics and ability of response to climate change. The results suggest that the MXD chronology of the Schrenk Spruce from different sampling sites responded to climate change well and were positively correlated with the mean maximum temperature and the mean temperature from April to August in the study area. The mean maximum temperature anomaly from April to August, spanning the years from 1848 to 2000, was reconstructed by three MXD chronologies which were selected by stepwise regression. The reconstructed function was stable and explained 56.2% of the variance. The reconstructed results indicated a cold span of 153 years in spring and summer from the beginning of the 1950s to the beginning of the 1970s in the Yili valley. No strongly increasing tendency was detected in the mean maximum temperature anomaly from April to August during this reconstructed period.