Journal
CHINESE PHYSICS B
Volume 22, Issue 12, Pages -Publisher
IOP PUBLISHING LTD
DOI: 10.1088/1674-1056/22/12/129202
Keywords
stable components; climatological background; coefficient of variance
Categories
Funding
- National Basic Research Program of China [2013CB430204]
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [40930952, 41105070]
- State Key Development Program for Basic Research of China [2012CB955902]
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In this paper we try to extract stable components in the extended-range forecast for the coming 10-30 days by using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, similarity coefficient, and some other methods based on the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis daily data. The comparisons of the coefficient of variance of climatological background field and truth data in winter between 2010 and 2011 are made. The method of extracting stable components and climatological background field can be helpful to increase forecasting skill. The forecasting skill improvement of air temperature is better than geopotential height at 500 hPa. Moreover, this method improves the predictability better in the Pacific Ocean. In China, the forecast in winter in Northeast China is more uncertain than in the other parts.
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