Mixture probabilistic PCR model for soft sensing of multimode processes

Principal component regression (PCR) has been widely used for soft sensor modeling and quality prediction in last several decades, which is still very popular for both academy researches and industry applications. However, most PCR models are determined by the projection method, which may lack probabilistic interpretation for the process data. In fact, due to the inevitable process noise, most process data are inherently random variables. Several probabilistic PCA methods have already been proposed in the past years. Compared to the deterministic modeling method, the probabilistic model is more appropriate to characterize the behavior of the random variables in the process. This paper first presents a probabilistic derivation of the PCR model (PPCR) and then extends it to the mixture form (MPPCR). For quality prediction of processes with multiple operation modes, a mixture probabilistic soft sensor is developed based on the MPPCR model. Simultaneously, the information of the operation mode can also be located by the proposed soft sensor. To evaluate the performance of the MPPCR model, a numerical example and a benchmark simulation case study of the Tennessee Eastman process are provided. Different methods have been compared with the proposed model, including the global, local, and multi-local PCR models. As a result, the proposed MPPCR model performs the best among these methods. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.