Age rank/clade rank metrics - Sampling, taxonomy, and the meaning of stratigraphic consistency

Paleontologists frequently contrast clade rank (i.e., nodal or patristic distance from the base of a cladogram) with age rank (i.e., relative first known appearances of the analyzed taxa) to measure the degree of congruence between the estimated phylogeny and the fossil record. Although some potential biases of these methods have been examined (e.g., the effect of tree imbalance), other properties of age rank/clade rank (ARCR) comparisons have not been studied in detail. A basic premise of ARCR metrics is that outgroup taxa diverged earlier than ingroups and thus should first appear in older strata. For example, given phylogeny (A,(B,C)), then taxon A should be sampled before either taxon B or taxon C. We examine this premise in the context of (1) phylogenetic theory, (2) taxonomic practice, (3) sampling intensity (R), and (4) factors other than sampling intensity (including cladogram accuracy). Simulations combining clade evolution and sampling over time indicate a poor relationship between ARCR metrics and R when all taxa are apomorphy-based monophyletic groups. However, a good relationship exists when taxa are either stem-based monophyletic groups or if workers include taxa without a priori decisions about monophyly or paraphyly. These results are not surprising because cladograms predict the order in which lineages diverged (which applies to stem-based monophyletic taxa) and the order in which morphologic grades appeared (which applies to paraphyletic taxa relative to derived monoyhyletic groups). Other factors that increase ARCR metrics when the average R stays the same include high temporal variation in R, budding instead of bifurcating speciation patterns, low extinction rates, cladogram inaccuracy, and (to a much lesser extent) large clade size. These results suggest several plausible explanations for patterned differences in ARCR metrics among clades, thereby compromising their validity as measures of the quality of the fossil record.