Evaluation of bioenergy potential with a multi-regional global-land-use-and-energy model

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the global bioenergy potential in the future using a multi-regional global-land-use-and-energy model (GLUE-11). The model covers a wide range of biomass flow including food chains from feed to meat, paper recycling, and discharge of biomass residues. Through a set of simulations, the following results are obtained. (1) Supply potential of energy crops produced from surplus arable land will be available in North America, Western Europe, Oceania, Latin America, former USSR and Eastern Europe. However, the potential of energy crops will be strongly affected by the variation of parameters of food supply and demand such as animal food demand. (2) Bioenergy supply potential of biomass residues will be stable against a change of a food demand parameter. The ultimate bioenergy supply potential of biomass residues will be 265 EJ/year in the world in 2100. The practical potential of biomass residues in the world will be 114 EJ/year, which is equivalent to one-third of the commercial energy consumption in the world in 1990. (3) Concerning land uses, the global mature forest area will decrease by 24% between 1990 and 2100, because of growth of both population and wood biomass demand per capita in the developing regions. The mature forest, especially, will disappear by 2100 in some developing regions, such as Centrally Planned Asia, Middle East and North Africa, and South Asia. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.