Determinants of emissions growth in OECD countries

This paper analyses the sources of growth in energy-related greenhouse gas emissions for OECD countries over the period 1982-1997. It employs a decomposition Formula that separates out the effects of changes in population, economic growth, energy intensity of output (in aggregate and by sector), primary energy use in final energy consumption. the share of fossil fuels and the carbon intensity of fossil fuel combustion. It is shown that, in general, growth in emissions depends on how effectively energy use can be changed to offset the effects of economic growth. Across the OECD Lis a whole, growth in emissions has been mainly due to economic growth (both GDP per capita and population growth). as well as an increase in primary energy required for final energy consumption. offset by failing energy intensities and a declining share of fossil fuels. Overall, the large fall in the energy intensity of OECD economics over 1982-1997 has been driven primarily by Falling energy intensities in the services and industry sectors of the USA and the services sector of the European Union, but these have been offset somewhat by rising energy intensity of services in Japan. The influence or failing energy intensities and the declining share of fossil fuels weakened in the five-year period 1992-1997 resulting in faster emissions growth. There were sharp difference between countries, with population growth and worsening fuel mix playing a much stronger role in the USA compared to the EU and Japan, but,with the US making much larger reductions in energy use per unit of GDP. The analysis suggests that opportunities to reduce emissions are more limited in Germany, the UK and Japan, with more opportunities in the USA, Canada, the Netherlands and Australia. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.