Retrospective analysis of Bering Sea bottom trawl surveys: regime shift and ecosystem reorganization

This paper compiles data from bottom trawl surveys using variations on a 400-mesh eastern trawl gear into a 38-year time series (1963-2000), using a robust index of median catch per unit effort (CPUE) as an indicator of regional abundance. Time series are presented for three index sites in the southeastern Bering Sea: the inner shelf in Bristol Bay, the middle shelf north of Unimak Island, and the outer shelf near the Pribilof Islands. All three sites show strong evidence of a shift in benthic biomass and community structure in the early to mid-1980s. During this period, all three sites showed substantial increases in the abundances of walleye pollock, Pacific cod, rock sole, flathead sole, cartilaginous fishes (skates) and non-crab benthic invertebrates. Species composition, especially of flatfish, differs at the three sites, but the trend for groundfish abundance to increase was consistent at all three sites. The similarity in trends both across the region and across both commercial and unexploited groups suggests to us that a complete reorganization of benthic and demersal food webs may have taken place. The timing of change in trawl catch weight is consistent with effects of the strong regime shift observed in climate indices in 1976-1977. There is little evidence of similar biological responses to subsequent, less pronounced changes in climate. Our data are also consistent with recently documented shifts in ecosystem dynamics resulting from changes in ice cover and thermal structure in the eastern Bering Sea. Our analysis indicates that there was a much higher biomass of groundfish at all three sites during 1980-2000 than in 1960-1980. This result provides evidence against the hypothesis that the overall productivity of the eastern Bering Sea has decreased. The precipitous decline of the endangered Steller sea lion in this region from 1975-1985 was concurrent with an overall increase in abundance of groundfish prey. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.