Matching of technological forecasting technique to a technology

Technological forecasting (TF) has been acknowledged as an effective tool in setting technology strategies. A large number of techniques have been evolved for TF. The quality of forecasts would greatly depend on proper selection and application of appropriate techniques. The application demands that the technique used need to be time-, space- and technology-specific. An analysis of the limitations of TF is indicative of the fact that very little effort has been made to select an appropriate technique for a particular technology. Selection of an appropriate technique in a particular situation could affect the accuracy and reliability of the forecast. A methodology is suggested in this paper to match the technique to a technology by mapping both technology and technique characteristics on a common scale. The technique whose profile closely fits the technology profile becomes an obvious choice. This method will help in selection of complementary and appropriate techniques for a technology. Two specific technologies pertaining to Main Battle Tank (MBT) and Information Technology (IT) have been selected to illustrate application of proposed methodology. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.