Prediction of total and rare plant species richness in agricultural landscapes from satellite images and topographic data

The diversity of future landscapes might depend on our ability to predict their potential species richness. The predictability of patterns of vascular plant species richness in a Finnish agricultural river landscape was studied using generalized linear modeling, floristic records from fifty-three 0.25-km grid squares in the core study area, and environmental variables derived from Landsat TM images and a digital elevation model. We built multiple regression models for the total number of plant species and the number of rarities, and validated the accuracy of the derived models with a test set of 52 grid squares. We tentatively extrapolated the models from the core study area to the whole study area of 601 km(2) and produced species richness probability maps using GIS techniques. The results suggest that the local 'hotspots' of total flora (grid squares with > 200 species) are mainly found in river valleys, where habitat diversity is high and a semi-open agricultural-forest mosaic occurs. The 'hotspots' of rare species (grid squares with > 4 rare species) are also found in river valleys, in sites where extensive semi-natural grasslands and herb-rich deciduous forests occur on steep slopes. We conclude that environmental variables derived from satellite images and topographic data can be used as approximate surrogates of plant species diversity in agricultural landscapes. Modeling of biological diversity based on satellite images and GIS can provide useful information needed in land use planning. However, due to the potential pitfalls in processing satellite imagery and model-building procedures, the results of predictive models should be carefully interpreted.