Journal
EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY
Volume 14, Issue 1, Pages 25-34Publisher
LIPPINCOTT WILLIAMS & WILKINS
DOI: 10.1097/00042737-200201000-00006
Keywords
cirrhosis; hepatitis C; hepatocellular carcinoma; prevalence; simulation
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Objective Hepatitis C is a major cause of liver disease in European countries. We aimed to assess the current and future disease burden of hepatitis C. Setting A representative data set of hepatitis C was applied to a validated computer model. Methods The mandatory reporting of positive hepatitis C virus (HCV) test results by all medical laboratories in Switzerland and the clinical data obtained by questionnaire for each positive test from the treating physicians created a unique, representative epidemiological database allowing the determination of the age distribution of acute (i.e. newly acquired) and chronic HCV infections. Based on these data and a simulation model of the natural history of hepatitis C, we estimated the prevalence of HCV infection, future morbidity/mortality from cirrhosis/hepatocellular carcinoma and costs. Results Our analysis estimates a prevalence of anti-HCV in Switzerland of 1.25-1.75%, which is slightly higher than prior reports (0.5-1%) derived by extrapolation from selected populations. Although new HCV infections decreased after 1990, our analysis predicts that HCV-related morbidity and mortality will increase by 70-90%, reaching a maximum in 2015-2020, largely from complications in cases already prevalent in 1998. The model predicts that the incidence of cirrhosis will begin to decrease after 2005-2010. Antiviral treatment reduces disease burden by approximately 5%. Undiscounted HCV-related annual direct costs will more than double and reach a maximum of almost US$33 million in 2020. Conclusions The incidence of HCV-related cirrhosis is predicted to decrease after 2005-2010, while disease burden and costs due to complications are estimated to continue to increase until 2015-2020. Eur J Gastroenterol Hepatol 14:25-34 (C) 2002 Lippincott Williams Wilkins.
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