Explaining Australia's increased share of ISI publications - the effects of a funding formula based on publication counts

Australia's share of publications in the Science Citation Index (SCI) has increased by 25% in the last decade. The worrying aspect associated with this trend is the significant decline in citation impact Australia is achieving relative to other countries. It has dropped from sixth position in a ranking of 11 OECD countries in 1988, to 10th position by 1993, and the distance from ninth place continues to widen. The increased publication activity came at a time when publication output was expected to decline due to pressures facing the higher education sector, which accounts for over two-thirds of Australian publications. This paper examines possible methodological and contextual explanations of the trends in Australia's presence in the SCI, and undertakes a detailed comparison of two universities that introduced diverse research management strategies in the late 1980s. The conclusion reached is that the driving force behind the Australian trends appears to lie with the increased culture of evaluation faced by the sector. Significant funds are distributed to universities, and within universities, on the basis of aggregate publication counts, with little attention paid to the impact or quality of that output. In consequence, journal publication productivity has increased significantly in the last decade, but its impact has declined. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.