Climate variability effects on simulated pasture and animal production in the perennial pasture zone of south-eastern Australia. 1. Between year variability in pasture and animal production

Climate variability is a major constraint to farming in south-eastern Australia and one that is out of the farmers' control. However, a better understanding of long-term climate variability would be beneficial for on-farm management decisions. A series of long-term simulations were undertaken with the GrassGro decision support tool to determine the effect of climate variability on pasture and animal production at 6 locations in south-eastern Australia. The simulations ran from 89 to 119 years using daily weather records from each location. All simulations were for spring-lambing flocks of medium sized Merino ewes stocked at above-average district stocking rates, grazing well-fertilised, perennial grass-subterranean clover pastures. Annual rainfall total and, in particular, the distribution of rainfall during the year, were found to be more important than other weather variables in determining the amount of pasture grown in a year. The timing of the season opening rains (autumn break) was most important. The localities varied in their responses to climate variability, particularly in the timing of the autumn break; the pasture growth response to winter rainfall; and the relationship between rainfall and animal production.