Improvement of prognostic power of the Child-Pugh classification of liver cirrhosis by hyaluronan

Background/Aims: Modifications of the Child-Pugh classification of liver cirrhosis by incorporation of hyaluronan were tested to improve the prognostic power for long term evaluation of liver cirrhosis in 126 patients observed over a period of 10 years. Methods: Serum concentrations of HA were determined at study entry. Statistical analysis included Kaplan-Meier life tables and stepwise multivariant Cox-regression analysis for each parameter of Child-Pugh classification and hyaluronan. Prognostic models were developed by exchanging prothrombin time, albumin and encephalopathy by HA in different combinations. Results: Based on a good single correlation between hyaluronan (0.62) and clinical course (P < 0.01) we conclude that models with hyaluronan instead of albumin or encephalopathy and with or without shifted threshold values of bilirubin and albumin are superior for the prediction of the long term prognosis. In Cox-regression analysis, apart from hyaluronan and bilirubin, no other parameters contributed to an improvement. Conclusions: We conclude that a modification of the Child-Pugh classification of liver cirrhosis by inclusion of HA significantly improves the predictive power of CP, especially in alcoholic etiology. A prospective validation of the newly defined scores needs to be done in the future. (C) 2003 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.