Journal
SOCIAL SCIENCE & MEDICINE
Volume 57, Issue 11, Pages 2207-2215Publisher
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/S0277-9536(03)00086-8
Keywords
cost-effectiveness analysis; uncertainty; sensitivity analysis; portfolio; resource constraints
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Much research has been devoted to handling uncertainty in cost-effectiveness analysis. The current literature suggests summarizing uncertainty in cost-effectiveness analysis using acceptability curves or net health benefits. These approaches, however, focus only on uncertainty associated with costs and effects of the programs under consideration. In the real world, most decision-makers have to fund a portfolio of health care programs. Therefore, a more comprehensive approach would include in the analysis the uncertainty of costs and effects of all programs supported by the fixed budget. This paper extends the decision rule described by Birch and Gafni (J. Health Econ. 11 (3) (1992) 279) within the context of a portfolio of programs when costs and effects are uncertain and resources constrained. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
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