Journal
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS
Volume 18, Issue 4, Pages 1324-1330Publisher
IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC
DOI: 10.1109/TPWRS.2003.818590
Keywords
finance; hydroelectric power generation; hydrology; meteorology; risk analysis
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Limiting the emissions of greenhouse gases from power generation will depend, among other things, on the continuing and increased use of hydroelectric power. However, climate change itself may alter rainfall patterns, adversely affecting the financial viability of existing and potential hydro schemes. Previous work developed a methodology for quantifying the potential impact of climate change on the economics of hydropower schemes. Here, the analysis is extended to examine the potential for changes in project risk. A case study is presented that indicates that the applied climate change scenarios alter not only the mean financial performance of the scheme but also the financial risk facing it. Given that investors must balance project risk and reward, this finding has implications for the future provision of hydropower.
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