CASP5 assessment of fold recognition target predictions

We present an overview of the fifth round of Critical Assessment of Protein Structure Prediction (CASP5) fold recognition category. Prediction models were evaluated by using six different structural measures and four different alignment measures, and these scores were compared to those assigned manually over a diverse subset of target domains. Scores were combined to compare overall performance of participating groups and to estimate rank significance. The methods used by a few groups outperformed all other methods in terms of the evaluated criteria and could be considered state-of-the-art in structure prediction. We discuss a few examples of difficult fold recognition targets to highlight the progress of ab initio-type methods on difficult structure analogs and the difficulties of predicting multidomain targets and selecting prediction models. We also compared the results of manual groups to those of automatic servers evaluated in parallel by CAFASP, showing that the top performing automated server structure predictions approached those of the best manual predictors. (C) 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.