All age-depth models are wrong: but how badly?

The uncertainty and error associated with fitted age-depth models were investigated by fitting a range of models to sets of simulated radiocarbon dates based on varved sediments and comparing the modelled relationship with the varve timescale. With large numbers of dates, cubic smooth splines out-perform other models; with few dates, no model reliably provides a good fit to reality, and calculated confidence intervals are over-optimistic. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.