Ecological conditions during winter predict arrival date at the breeding quarters in a trans-Saharan migratory bird

We studied variation in arrival date to the breeding colonies in Italy of a trans-Saharan migratory bird, the barn swallow Hirundo rustica, in relation to variation in ecological conditions, as reflected by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), in the winter quarters. Arrival date of old but not young individuals captured during consecutive breeding seasons was earlier after winters with favourable conditions. Change in arrival date in relation to change in NDVI was similar in the two sexes. Change in arrival date significantly and positively predicted change in breeding date. As a result of increased frequency of second broods determined by earlier arrival, the number of fledged offspring per season was larger after African winters with good in comparison to poor ecological conditions for barn swallows. This is the first study demonstrating phenotypic plasticity in migration phenology of a long-distance migratory bird in relation to ecological conditions during wintering.